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Baseball Prospectus 2012

Baseball Prospectus 2012

Baseball Prospectus
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4.2 of 5
Wiley; Third edition (February 1, 2012)
The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business

The essential guide to the 2012 baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy player—or both—you won't be properly informed without it. Baseball Prospectus 2012 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team.Contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teamsProjects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called ""perhaps the game's most accurate projection model"" (Sports Illustrated)From Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball

Now in its seventeenth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.

Download Baseball Prospectus 2012 by Baseball Prospectus free
7 Reviews
  • At the outset of each baseball season, I like to pick up several volumes--the Bill James annual work and this volume, among others. And the 2012 edition does not disappoint.

    The purpose of this book (Page ix): "Baseball Prospectus 2012, like its predecessors, is an attempt to make sense of the chaos, not just the sometimes tragic chaos of those cold months, but also the wonderful bedlam that makes up any baseball season any summer, and more importantly, what it means for the coming season and beyond." This work begins with a discussion of statistics--both on offense and defense and pitching. On offense, the "True Average" is a key metric. Note that a TAv of .260 is average, .300 exceptional, and .200 awful (TAv is a conglomerate measure including power, walking, striking out, and making "productive outs"). Then, there is PECOTA--projections for the coming season.

    Let's take a look at the Chicago Cubs. Their best offensive player, by the PECOTA score, should be Geovany Soto. The Chicago White Sox? Paul Konerko has the highest projected true average--.297. One element in the player descriptions is the analogous players to the one named. Konerko's doppelgangers? Stan Musial, Kevin Mitchell, and Rafael Palmeiro. Not bad company! The most intriguing projection? Adam Dunn, after a disastrous 2011 season, is projected to have a TAv of .292. We shall see! And we see projections and actual records on a team by team basis, from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Washington Nationals.

    Other features--the top 101 prospects for the major leagues (Matt Moore, pitcher for the Rays) comes in as the number 1 prospect; the PECOTA leaderboard.

    Another baseball season has begun! And this work helps make that a little bit more enjoyable.

  • I bought this for my father who greatly enjoys fantasy baseball. Since I graduated school and found a job, instead of buying him the book a year late and paying 99 cents and letting him look up the recent data online, I was able to buy the new edition this year - This book is worth every penny for a real baseball statistics fanatic.

    It provides several years' worth of stats, as well as projections and comparisons to other players. I wish it had a better guide to what each statistic meant; we had to look up a sort of glossary for that online and make an addendum in a binder for Dad's extra fantasy baseball information. The book is so complete and thorough in terms of information about the players, once we understood what each stat was, it really cut back on the amount of time he spends researching on various sites to build his time, and he's been able to better focus on actually putting together teams.

    Every baseball team has a team synopsis written out with projections for the year before discussing the players of that team, and there's very useful information that's easy to read. There's also enough room in the margins to make notes.

    He's purchased other baseball stat books in the past, but nothing really compares to BP. The only real complaint I heard from him regarding the book was the silly nature of the introduction; I guess they're trying to be coy and market it to young people. Of course, it's easy enough to skip that part. If anyone could recommend an equally good pro football guide, please comment!

  • It has some good analyses but it would be much improved if it reported its forecast errors from the prior year. I did a sampling of the accuracy of BPs WARP predictions for hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. I compared the actual 2015 WARPs, acquired from BP's on-line website, to the predicted WARPs from the 2014 BP. (Note, I'm relating this criticism here (2012 BP) because I haven't as yet been asked to critique 2015 or 2014 BPs.) Using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), BP had a 208.1% MAPE. If one made a naive forecast (i.e., simply predicted 2015 WARP to be equal to 2014 WARP), that MAPE would be 226.4%. Clearly, BP's prediction for 2015 only bested a naive prediction error by a bit. Not a very impressive track record.

    BP makes a lot of other predictions for hitters (e.g., AVG,OBP, SLG, TAv) and for pitchers (e.g., BB/9, K/9, GB%, BABIP, WHIP, ERA, FIP, WARP) but never publishes it accuracy or error rate. BP never even indicates that it tracts these data. If those who make forecasts do not evaluate them, it's likely prediction accuracy will never improve. I strongly encourage BP to start reporting these error or accuracy data.

  • This is a great read for any baseball fan but a MUST READ for the fantasy baseball player.

    1. The players are ordered by teams with hitters first followed by pitchers in alphabetical order. There's a great index by name as well. The front matter talks in great detail about the statistics used in the text, explaining the analytic approach in excrutiating but fun detail.

    2. Each team has a few pages of sumnmary discussion followed by player stats/descriptions. The player stats are presented for the prior 3 years and they include projections for the 2012 season.

    3. The best part: the analysts provide a text summary of the player in plain English terms -- the comments can be sarcastic, funny, biting, and even hilarious. I often quote from the book at my baseball draft auction. The Manny Ramirez quote, for example, "Everyone's favorite idiot showed a new level of stupidity by violating baseball's performance-enhancing drug policy for the second time. Manny's bay area retreat lasted only slightly longer than the Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba as Ramirez retired rather than sit out 100 games...." Great stuff.

    Buy this book. Now.